Archive November 2008


28/Nov/08

Post Market Review:

The after effects of "Cowardice Act" of Mumbai will lead to lot of Diplomatic calisthenics, adding to lot of tumultuous woes to the market situation. Although firm public view is, these callous Indian politicians will not change and will continue to take the mileage out of the public's sufferings.
Does India also needs PATRIOT LAW ?: Yes in present context India needs a ..

Nifty opened at 2745 and touched a low of 2690. Later the market resilience made up to  2779 and finally closed at 2752, making gains of 0.10%, which by any parameters is remarkable. Heads off to MUMBAI!!

The gainers were TCS, INFOSYSTCH, BHEL, M&M and HDFC. The Losers were UNITECH, NATIONALALUM, ZEEL, AMBUJACEM & HCLTECH.

27/Nov/08
Markets closed (MUMBAI: COWARDS hold the city to ransom)

Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.

  • The Mumbai Terror Attack will have its toll on the market initially.
  • The Nifty will experience lot of volatility.
  • The opening can be negative, as an impact of Mumbai Blasts yesterday.
  • Expected High/Low 2860,2938/2664.
  • Stay away from the market as it is highly unpredictable.
26/Nov/08

Post Market Review:

Tomorrow's picture of the would be the real state, as today's gains can be because of short-covering as the Nifty was already oversold.

Further tomorrow  is the settlement day  so lot of choppiness is expected.

During the Market:

  • 03.52 pm. Eventually closed at near days high at 2748. The Banking Index gained the maximum. Since this may be the result of short covering, tomorrow a weak close is expected, if no positive cues pour in.
  • 02.30 pm. Nifty has made a new high for the day at 2717, the Oil & Gas sectors are pushing the nifty. AT the ending session it seems short covering is taking place.
  • 10.00 am. Nifty has opened with a positive gap and is range bound
Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.
  • The markets are expected to volatile & choppy.
  • Nifty may show early gains and then is expected to plunge to lows around 2530 levels.
  • Expected High/Low 2930, 2790/2525.
  • Market is for day traders, or Long term investors at 2530 levels
  • Steel sector can show signs of recovery.
25/Nov/08

Post Market Review:

Internationally all steel manufacturers breathed easy as there was a cause to rejoice, the BHP's bid to takeover RIO, an another iron ore producer, did not materialize. Otherwise there would have been a great problem controlling their price line as all are heavily dependent on iron ore.

Citibank got the relief of rescue but are said to be now facing the problem of employees moving out. The rescue was unable to give the desired booster to the ailing sentiment, specially across Asian market.

The oil prices have reduced to nearly 1/3 but in India & China the benefit is still far from the public. Only Oil companies are able to benefit after being in the red for years.

Slowly the semblance is returning in favor of India and other developing economies. It will take sometime when the tide will bring FDIs back to Indian shores.

The Market outlook will remain volatile and choppy. Although some improvement will trickle in, the broad cues remain negative. The real state has taken a lot of beating and after some more correction may be around -10% it will regain but not to the earlier highs.

During the Market:
  • 03.40 pm. The Nifty was unable to digest the early gains and finally closed at 2654 down by 2%.
  • 03.22 pm. Profit booking ate all the gains off the Nifty.
  • 01.55 pm. Nifty is unable to be in the positive zone and has slipped in the negative.
  • 01.43 pm. Nifty may recover sharply towards the last leg of session.
  • 01.35 pm. CAIRN, ZEEL, HDFCBANK, ONGC, DLF, SATYAMCOMP, UNITECH, BHARTIARTL, TATAPOWER & SAIL are gainers, while AMBUJACEM, RANBAXY, M&M, HCLTECH, ITC, RELIANCE, GRASIM, TCS & SUZLON are losing ground. Nifty is making to keep the gains achieved so far at 2720.
  • 11.08 am. The Nifty has opened on a positive note, opened with a positive gap and is trying to hold its gains. At present the gainers are led by TATACOMM, CAIRN, HDFCBANK, SIEMENS, UNITECH, IDEA, ICICBANK, ONGC, STERLITE & WIPRO, while the major loser is RANBAXY and others marginally down are HDFC, M&M, AMBUJACEM, ITC, MARUTI & SUNPHARMA.
Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.
  • Today a rally is on the cards.
  • Nifty to open flat and will remain volatile, and will close around 2779-2790.
  • The Nifty may respond positively to the Citibank's bail out.
  • The IT & private banks are expected to lead, followed closely by oil & gas sectors.
  • Steel sector will also try to wipe some over reaction showed earlier.
  • Expected High/Low 2936,2990/2690.
  • Real state is sector to be cautious about as its still overvalued.
 24/Nov/08

Post Market Review:

The bailout of Citibank has paved way for other big corporations to follow similar suite. The $306 aid to the ailing Citibank will prove a booster for the sagging banks share all over the world.

Gold prices continue to surge ahead proving that the investors still continue to confide in GOLD. Oil price also appear to stabilize above $50 after touching a low below $49.

It will take some more time before the global market comes to terms with economic crisis.

There are opportunities in every disaster. Remember, after the great famine of Bengal how Oberoi's built an empire. These are the times when big fish pile up their booty before the funds or other financial institutions realize the opportunity. That's why the share market is called risky, its for players with very strong capabilities of risk appetite.     

During the Market:

  • 03.35 pm. The Nifty has ultimately closed at 2696.
  • 03.05 pm. The Nifty is heading towards a flat close, after listless trading session.
  • 01.02 pm. A rescue plan for Citibank of $306 billion is approved by the US government. This may definitely improve the sentiment.
  • Nifty is trading in a range amongst weak Asian cues. The Citibank's reports are also dampening the sentiment. A weak or flat closing is expected. Closing of Tata Motors, Jamshedpur plant, although for few days, is an the impact of re-cessation. In these unfavorable times the government has suggested that India Inc. should lower the prices. Its a common sense question that when the public is not having enough money to meet their important demands because of price-index, how the lowering of prices of non-essential commodities would help. On the contrary government, who has broader & more control measures, is in-confident of its moves. Lowering the price line is a short term solution.

Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.
  • Global cues are are stabilizing and may turn positive.
  • A flat opening and a flat closing expected.
  • Markets may stabilize for a day.
  • Volatility expected.
  • Expected High/Low 2930/2630
  • Purchase recommended at lows of 2630 or below. Remember the rule invest only 10% of your cash reserves.
21/Nov/08
Post Market Review:

The Nifty improved today as a result of short covering and a possible bottoming out situation, after 7 days of continuous hammering. The European counterparts also firmed up. If the market has bottomed out then the recovery could be fast, but till market confirms this is yet to be seen in coming days.



During the Market:
  • 11.10 am. Index heavy weights like ONGC, RELIANCE & INFOSYSTCH are pushing the Nifty upwards whereas Realty sector is pulling down.
  • Nifty has become very volatile and have crossed 2610. The only advise is to watch Nifty's pyrotechnics.
  • Nifty has opened flat and then surged up to 2610.
Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.
  • All the global cues are negative.
  • A weak opening is expected, markets may open  30-80 points negative.
  • Expected High/Low 2683/2480, 2253
  • After touching a low of 2475 or 2253, recovery is possible. 
  • Intraday or high risk traders/investors can enter at levels of 2253-2270.
  • Crude oil has fallen to $49.62, due lowering of global demand.
 20/Nov/08
Post Market Review:

Amidst ever growing fears of global recession the entire Asian markets have plunged and the data pouring in unfold the larger picture of recession yet to unfold. The Asian indices are at five and half years low already. Investors are shifting to GOLD, as it is considered the safest when bourses tumble.

Fears of Citi Banks bad debts and credit card crisis is another skeleton in the cupboard waiting to jump out. The retail demand is constantly crushed as buyers are tightening their belts. The lay-offs have deep rooted consequences, on one hand they are directly reducing buyers and further enhancing the the fear in the employed of Domiciles sword hanging over their heads, so they have also started saving for black times.

Interest rates are expected to be slashed further, dollar weakening day by day has complicated the situatuion further. Oil prices are also tumbling and are expected touch $50/barrel.

One cannot say that Indian economy would not be affected to that extent, it would be only ostrich like reaction. The world economy is already pushed back by couple of years. India could have taken the leading role had our Hon. FM would not have behaved spend thriftily.
India has lost the opportunity for lack of economical foresight.

It would not be fare to advise any type of investment especially in stocks right now, or till the market shows signs of stability.
 

During the Market:

  • 03.31 pm. Nifty made an attempt to recover on short-covering and closed at 2573.
  • Some recovery is expected in post 3 pm trading.
  • 02.51 pm. Nifty is trading at 25328 levels and only stocks in positive at this moment are NTPC, CIPLA & M&m.
  • 01.58 pm. Now nifty is being helped by NTPC, ACC, HCLTECH, HINDALCO, NATIONALUM, SIEMENS, ONGC & ITC in recovery.
  • 01.40 pm. Nifty has improved and is currently at 2550, the upward move is supported by ACC & ITC.
  • 12.19 pm. Inflation numbers have come. From 8.98% last week its now 8.90%.
  • 11.30 am. Investors like Warren Buffet and the likes have always invested  in such scenarios and were amply rewarded. They enter when everyone is optimally pessimistic.
  • 11.20 am. All the global clues are negative, Brent Oil is at $50/barrel, Dollar has weakened, retail demand is slowing, production is impacted negatively. Besides all this there is one silver lining that Indian fundamentals are intact its only the negative sentiment and global economic woes that are pulling down the nifty.
  • 11.00 AM. Only ABB is trading marginally positive and all other A Group stocks are negative, down slide is led by ICICIBANK, TATACOMM, RELINFRA, DLF, etc.
  • 10.40 am. Nifty is trading around 2525.
  • 09.58 am. Nifty opened nearly flat and immediately sank to 2523 level.

Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.
  • Flat opening or 30 point plus gap.
  • Nifty to be very volatile.
  • Expected High/Low 2802/2696, 2526.
  • If market sinks to 2550 or lower intra-day/short term  traders can take the benefit.
19/Nov/08
Post Market Review:

Until the noon it appeared that the markets keep the gains achieved by then, but all of a sudden profit taking stepped up and markets receded to close at 2635.

Under such duress the equities which managed to gain were led by ZEEL, HEROHONDA, ITC, RANBAXY, AMBUJACEM, CAIRN, M&M, MARUTI, DLF & GAIL. The losers were led by TATACOMM, SUZLON,GRASIM, RCOM, HINDALCO, SUNPHARMA, NATIONALUM, LT, IDEA & SAIL.

The Markets have reached an oversold position after consecutive six sessions of sell-off. Now anytime the accumulation or buy back can start. The markets may not touch 2500 levels as is widely expected, although when the supply is getting thinner day by day small quantities  can have pronounced effect on the market. Its not denied that market may touch 2500 but the chances appear remote.

An investor has to start taking risks, of course a well calculated ones, as purchase made now will not go down drastically. One can safely invest as this may be near bottom. One cannot buy at the exact bottom or sell at the exact top. About 10% of the cash can be invested if the nifty goes 100points down from the current levels.


During the Market:
  • Nifty crash closed at 2635. All the Asian as well other world markets are bleeding.
  • 12.55 pm. Nifty is stuck in a range of 2696 and 2930. Till it gets out of this range, it will oscillate in this range.
  • 12.19 pm. Nifty is currently at 2770 and Gainer are led by Ambujacement, DLF, STERLITE, MARUTI, RELIANCE, RANBAXY, M&M, HDFCBANK & CAIRN. While SATYAMCOMP, TATACOMM, INFOSYSTCH & TCS are pulling the Nifty down but not with enough weight. 

12.06 pm. Due to some technical snag the PRE Market Analysis scheduled for 9am  could not be given, kindly excuse. We are grateful to Synthasite.com in helping us to resolve the problem.
 18/Nov/08
During the Market
  • Nifty closed for the day at 2683 amidst wild swings.
  • 02.15 pm. The Nifty is currently around 2692, post 02.35 pm. some recovery is expected. Nifty might close around 2730-2750.
  • All the world markets are in negative, there are no exceptions.
  • 12.58 pm. After touching a low of 2675 Nifty is currently trading around 2699. Towards the end of the session Nifty may pull up.
  • TATASTEEL is a good buy below 160.
  • 10.00 am. Nifty is bound to recover from these levels.
  • 09.58 am. Its a good opportunity to accumulate GAIL below 189.

Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.
  • In recession times any news is a bad news, it means any good news will fail or be overlooked.
  • Nifty can be volatile in early session or at the fag end, but in a narrow range.
  • Expected High/Low 2930/2696.
  • If Nifty breaks 2990 barrier and closes above it, only then the negativity in market will get fresh air.
  • Small investors who have risk appetite can enter at levels of 2660 and exit at 2930 but only in A group shares. One should only trade if you have capacity to hold and wait for planned result. 
  • Day trading is not recommended for small investors.
 17/Nov/08
Post Market Review:

The Nifty ended without any clarity at 2799 after touching days low of 2694. A flat closing, daylong the nifty was slipping but in the end showed smart recovery.

Gainers were led by ACC, WIPRO, POWERGRID, TATAMOTORS, BHARTIARTL and IDEA. While HDFCBANK, UNITECH, RELINFRA, SIEMENS, M&M, SAIL, DLF and SATYAM pulled the Nifty down.

Formations today are suggestive of positive move tomorrow. The market is stuck in the range of 2630-2990.

During the Market
  • 12.06 pm. The nifty is overall weak. The G20 has estimated the GDP for India to go down and that is being reflected by Nifty. The inflation figures may go further south but retail sales are also going down.
  • 11.35 am. Except BPCL all other stocks are trading in negative. The stocks pulling down are led by UNITECH, ZEEL, HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK, SAIL, CAIRN, DLF, HINDALCO & AMUJA CEMENT.
  • 11.23 am. The Nifty after opening flat could find support and has now slipped to 2713.
Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.
  • Nifty may open flat or 20-30 points lower.
  • Market may show move up by 150 to 200 points.
  • Expected High/Low 2930/2696
  • It can be a day traders market but not for investors.
 05/Nov/08
Post Market Review:
05.55 pm.The world as well as Asian markets have rallied today. The only exceptions are European and Indian markets. The markets were expected to move sideways, but without any negative global or Indian cues, just because of profit taking the markets slipped by 140 points.

The results Obama's win have a negative impact on all oil majors world wide. He is in favor of non-conventional energy viz. wind energy, solar power. This implies that, in Indian context, companies like SUZLON, may fare well in times to come.

Obama is supposed to have inclination towards Pakistan, if that comes true then it can be cause of concern for India Inc. Lets wait and watch.



During the Market
03.55 pm. The Nifty closed at 2994 amidst profit taking.

02.21 pm. It appears at this stage that the market may close flat  +/- 15 points.

01.44 pm. The markets may retest 3060 or few points 10-20 points lower and then may move up.

12.38 pm. Nifty is continuously moving down at present it is at 3060. Profit booking has the cause of this slide.

Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.
  • Markets may open 20-30 points plus but may come down and then move sideways.
  • The markets are expected to move sideways and volatility can be seen in later half.
  • Volatility may be low.
  • Expected High/Low 3240/2930.
  • TATASTEEL, GAIL can continue there uptrend where as ACC, INFOSYSTCH, SATYAMCOMP can go further down.
  • IT Sector will continue with its journey to South.
 04/Nov/08
Post Market Review:
08.45 pm. Today the markets have have shown a very positive close. The Nifty closed up by 3.23% among positive global clues and growing Indian liquidity.

The meeting of FM with Bankers was real positive trigger for the market. FM is doing a good job for boosting the sagging economic picture by offering increased liquidity and lowering interest. The major banks have announced lowering of interest which was responded positively by the market.

The strengthening of Rupee further is adding to the woes of IT sector and other export oriented companies who are largely dependent on foreign currency.

AS far as markets are concerned, Nifty has just kissed 20 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and other technical indicators (MACD, ADX, Bollinger Band, Wlliam-R are also suggestive of further up move. It is expected that on reaching this level the Nifty should either decisively cross 20 days EMA else move side ways and consolidate to resume its onward journey.

During the Market

03.35 pm. The market rose steeply for a good and positive close at 3142. Nearly 100 point gain.

12.50 pm. The Nifty has slipped a bit. SATYAM, WIPRO, INFOSYS are slipping down as expected.

10.45 am. Markets have made a double bottom, a positive indication.

10.00 am. The markets have opened nearly flat and heading south

Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.

Today its very crucial for the market as it will provide an indication where the markets may head. If the closing is above 3044 it will head positive but if it closes below then down trend can be expected.
  • The market is expected to open normal i.e. without any gap.
  • Expected High/Low  3125/2890.
  • TATASTEEL, GAIL, ACC are attractive at current levels for long term.
  • The impact of Rupee strengthening may be felt in shares whose major earnings is in foreign currency, e.g. INFOSYS, SATYAM, etc.
03/Nov/08

Pre Market Analysis 09.00 am.

The market will volatile and a positive gap 'opening' is expected.
  • Markets may open with modest gap of 30-50 points.
  • Markets may show early gains.
  • Expected High/Low 3065/ 2890.
  • Stocks to watch are TATASTEEL, GAIL, ACC and are recommended for short to long term investment.
  • Markets may close at higher levels.

P.S.

Sorry...  Friends the Analysis of 1st. & 2nd. November'2008 is not available now due to technical problem.

Please excuse inconvenience is regretted. 

Earlier Data is intact in "ARCHIVE"
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